Water AlliesTier 2
at LLE Store Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-2-1
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8%
avg ELO -7.6 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1240
· median 1240
· range 1240–1240
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1105
Q1 1166
Q3 1363
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 37.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 25.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
